Bitcoin / US Dollar
Bitcoin has broken out monthly downtrend channel. Last month candle closed very strongly and we can expect some further upside momentum in the following months. I would like to buy a spot at $7800 level which is also Key S/R level. By that I mean the price should find support at $7700-7800 level and from this point rally up to $11,000 and higher.
What to expect if the $7k region will not hold? Then price should fill the gap and sweep the lows of $6400. But this scenario should not play out (from a historical perspective) as we have 70 days prior to Bitcoin Halving in this year. However, we should be prepared for everything.
On the weekly timeframe, we can see interesting area: significant weekly key s/r level + monthly at $7700 level + 25% range of Fibonacci retracement (which means there should buy power once price is at discount array)
In the next week, we can expect some upside momentum up to $9250 level where we should be sell pressure to push the price down to Key Weekly/Monthly S/R level at $7700.
HTF is still bullish as we have enjoyed a +40% ride in Bitcoin during the first months of 2020. I would outline here two scenarios that can happen.
1) Price can find support at the current level and immediately rally back above $10,000. If there will be any significant break in market structure at lower time frame, we will wait for its pullback and enjoy the ride once again.
2) Price fill find difficulties and will not have enough strength to break through $9200 and should find another support down to $7700.
Ethereum / US Dollar
Ethereum found support at $116 level also breakthrough significant monthly resistance which we should treat as a monthly key s/r level now. From this perspective, I would like to see the price to give us the opportunity for buying at $175-180 level.
You can see on a weekly level, that $166-180 level is adding more confluence into our monthly timeframe. In this area, we should expect strong support which we can observe at a daily or 4-hourly timeframe before doing any action. So far we have a strong rejection at $289 level. We should expect some little relief during the first days of the next week and followed by another sell-off down to our key area of $180 level.
Daily time frame tells us that recently we had a shift in market structure and prices should seek lower levels. Everything can change once we will break $260 level (then our bias needs to change into bullish LTF once again).
I would like to see another sell-off and watch $190 level what price will do there as it is Daily significant Key S/R level. If this level will not hold either, I wanna see the next level of interest at $170.
Litecoin / US Dollar
Litecoin had impressive +80% rally since the start of this year. I would not expect to end this rally so easily. Rather I would like to see monthly support at $48 level to hold and give us another rally above $100 and higher during the next Q2 2020.
The daily timeframe in Litecoin is a little bit tricky. I would like to see on daily to $54 level to hold but still, if we will not have rally up to $73 level Litecoin will have a bearish lower time frame for me with a recent shift in market structure.
Our monthly support is at $48 level, which should be on monthly/weekly timeframe only showed as a "wick" not closed with full-body on higher time frame, it means if we will have price to visit below $50 it should be for very quick buying opportunity and price should not stay there for longer time.
The ideal scenario would be to find support at $54 level and start with rally, but at the same time, Bitcoin will make decisions what to expect next in Ethereum and Litecoin.
If we are bullish on this asset then I would like to see $48-54 level holds as a strong support and start to rally up to $72 and higher, but this upside momentum needs to support Bitcoin as well.
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